Market Math
Last week, I wrote a post looking at the (apparently) impending Death Cross in the Russell 2000 index. In that post and the data examined, I found an interesting and statistically significant short-term signal for the Death Cross, but no effect for the Golden Cross. I suggested that this was
Market Math
One of the recurring themes in my work is that most of the technical tools most people use do not show an actual edge in the market--in other words, as hard is it may be to say, most things most people do simply do not work. In particular, there are
Market Math
So, in doing my weekend work, I found what looks like a decent long trade in NYSE: STT. There are a number of supporting factors on this chart, but it is essentially a breakout trade supported by consolidation below the level and higher lows into resistance: But then, a look
Market Math
Over the years, I've had my fair share of being on both the right and wrong side of world events. However, on balance, I've noticed an unusual number of times that I am in trades that appear to have somehow predicted the future--whether being in a
Market Math
I'm always doing research. Sometimes these are large, multi-month projects, but other times they are just a quick look to see "what the data says", and I share some of those results with you here. However, most research does not yield results--when we dig for treasure,
Market Math
[dc]S[/dc]ometimes, the obvious does need to be said. The S&P 500 cash index touched the big round number 2,000 yesterday. Here we are, in late summer, with very little happening in the world and few economic reports this week, so, of course, the media
General Comments
[dc]G[/dc]iven last week’s volatile spikes, there has been a lot of talk about the VIX and volatility in general. This is a good time to take a deeper look at the VIX and make sure we understand what it is, what it measures, and what it
Failure Test
[dc]I[/dc] want to write what might be a complicated blog post, but stick with me. I'll try to make it as clear as possible, because there is a good lesson here. Today, I want to look at volatility, how volatility evolves (changes), and how we can
General Comments
[dc]I[/dc] wanted to share a few thoughts and some analysis that we published in our research a week ago, looking at the supposed "sell in May…" effect. There are a few lessons here, ranging from how to think about the market statistically, to how to factor
General Comments
[dc]C[/dc]harts can be a powerful tool for market analysis and trading. At a glance, they can provide a quick overview of important price movements, can highlight supply/demand imbalances, and can suggest where repeatable tendencies in the market might be. Furthermore, because they are a visual tool,
General Comments
This is repost of an article I wrote last year (2012). I would have updated the numbers, but it wasn't really necessary as last December was flat enough that it did not materially alter the stats. This is the time of the year when we will start hearing
Chart of the Day
Daily S&P 500 Cash Index with SigmaSpikes® I would like to share a note that I published in my daily research this morning: Yesterday's downward closes in major stock indexes deserve some attention; as our readers know, we have long held a strongly bullish bias, and