General Comments
[dc]O[/dc]ver the past few months, I've been doing a lot of thinking and researching, and have been exploring some exciting new directions. Some of you have worked through my free trading course. (If you haven't, I'd encourage you to check it
General Comments
[dc]R[/dc]eader Wei asks: From the examples in the book, you are clearly a long term trader using daily and weekly time frames. But what combination of time frames would you think is the best to apply the concepts and strategies in your book to day trading? Wei,
Failure Test
[dc]I[/dc] want to write what might be a complicated blog post, but stick with me. I'll try to make it as clear as possible, because there is a good lesson here. Today, I want to look at volatility, how volatility evolves (changes), and how we can
General Comments
[dc]R[/dc]ichard asks: "I saw a trade setup, but also saw reasons not to take it. [MACD divergence] A news release was also scheduled soon, and a large move before the report set up the trade again. I didn't take the trade, but the report
Failure Test
[dc]T[/dc]he chart above is a daily chart of the EURUSD. I've written before about some of the challenges with using technical analysis in currencies—it's not that it can't be done, but it does require, in my opinion, a slightly different
General Comments
[dc]I[/dc] wanted to share a few thoughts and some analysis that we published in our research a week ago, looking at the supposed "sell in May…" effect. There are a few lessons here, ranging from how to think about the market statistically, to how to factor
Breakout
[dc]A[/dc] few weeks ago, I discussed a possible impending breakout in the British pound in this post. This is a good time to take another look at the pattern, how it has developed, and see if we can derive some trading ideas. First, the driving concept here is
Breakout
Silver is sitting on long-term support, with good potential downside below. There are a few things to think about here: First, this will not be a clean or easy trade; this is a trade that we have been stalking specifically for nearly a year, and have been leaning heavily short
Breakout
[dc]C[/dc]urrencies have been difficult technical trading for the past several quarters. This is partly due to the nature of currencies—though there is a lot of TA lore about currencies trending fantastically well, they also go through really choppy periods. Though currency prices are set by supply/
Chart of the Day
By way of history, we have been bearish on Gold for quite some time in the research I write daily for Waverly Advisors, and we hold a short that was established 9/23/13. There is potential for a dramatic pattern failure here, so this is absolutely not a time
Chart of the Day
Yesterday's weak closes in major stock indexes do threaten trend integrity, at least on the intermediate term: though fairly small on a nominal basis, these moves were large on a volatility-adjusted basis and have the potential to lead to further downside. (Bears will also find support for their
Anti
This chart shows a common context for the Anti pattern: following an overextension of an established trend (A), the market makes a sharp counter-trend move (B), and then pulls back in a complacent pullback (C). This sets up a condition that favors the possibility of another trend leg, roughly proportional