General Comments
Everyone is talking about the recent underperformance of small caps (and I've talked about it too!) This underperformance is taken to be a sign of an impending crash, or at least a sign that the market cannot rally. This might be a mistake, as a look at some
General Comments
The most important factor setting up pullback trades, and a simple framework for market and trend analysis that really works.
General Comments
It pays to think deeply about markets, how they move, risk, opportunity, and how it all plays out in the grand scheme of probability. We can and should spend a lot of time crafting our trading plans, understanding our risk tolerance, and monitoring our adherence to those plans. But, in
General Comments
We are awash in opinion and speculation. Every trader is writing blog posts or tweets about why the market will go up or down, and citing any number of factors. To my way of thinking, simple is better. There is only one thing that matters, and that is whether the
Market Math
Last week, I wrote a post looking at the (apparently) impending Death Cross in the Russell 2000 index. In that post and the data examined, I found an interesting and statistically significant short-term signal for the Death Cross, but no effect for the Golden Cross. I suggested that this was
Market Math
One of the recurring themes in my work is that most of the technical tools most people use do not show an actual edge in the market--in other words, as hard is it may be to say, most things most people do simply do not work. In particular, there are
Market Math
So, in doing my weekend work, I found what looks like a decent long trade in NYSE: STT. There are a number of supporting factors on this chart, but it is essentially a breakout trade supported by consolidation below the level and higher lows into resistance: But then, a look
Market Math
Over the years, I've had my fair share of being on both the right and wrong side of world events. However, on balance, I've noticed an unusual number of times that I am in trades that appear to have somehow predicted the future--whether being in a
General Comments
(Continued from this post.) I left you yesterday having discussed filtering for volume and activity and volatility. Today, let's dig a bit deeper and, first, look at filtering for certain other trading characteristics, then let's ask some of the questions that we always should ask when
General Comments
[dc]A[/dc]ttention is a precious resource. None of us, whether individuals or institutions, have an unlimited supply of attention. Part of the process of trading successfully is figuring out where to focus that limited attention. Part of this is dynamic; as trades develop we are able to spend
General Comments
Continuing from yesterday's post, I thought it might be interesting to review some trade setups I posted here this month (here and here, but also this post on the euro is also relevant). The video blog is about thirteen minutes long, but the point is not to review
General Comments
[dc]I[/dc] have written a lot this week, much of what I wrote calling for critical attention to traditional technical analysis. I thought it might make sense to end the week by stepping back, putting things together, and showing some tools and ideas on charts that do work. So,