Nested Pullback
This is the third article in my series on pattern recognition, and the last on pullbacks. Most patterns in markets are relatively simple, and most patterns were labeled long ago. True, there are many variations and refinements on pattern names, but there just aren't that many "new&
Pullback
I'm starting a short series of posts here on pattern recognition, focusing on simple patterns that I have found useful in actual trading. Some of my readers may have questions as to whether it is possible to trade profitably based on simple patterns, given that so much modern
Market Math
Reader Tom asks: I have been reading your blog for a few weeks and I don't see any mention of sentiment. I also see you trade futures but you do not talk about Commitment of Traders like on the Euro recently. Is this stuff you use but don&
Technical Patterns
I post a lot of critical thoughts, and spend a lot of time encouraging people to think deeply about the technical tools they use. Recently, I've received a lot of questions about what I think actually works. Though I've answered this in some depth before (and
Market Math
Continuing from my previous post on moving averages, let's take a look at using a moving average as a trend indicator. Again, here is some material from the unpublished part of my book, on using the slope of a moving average as a trend indicator, and a look
Market Math
Ok, so I'll warn you up front: this one's going to be a little bit difficult. The response to my post on the 200 day moving average in the DJIA and the S&P 500 was very positive, and I received many thought-provoking questions and
General Comments
This is one of those technical questions that does not have a quick, simple answer. The best answer is "no, not really, and almost certainly not in the way most people think", but there are some nuances to consider. I have done extensive quantitative work on moving averages,
Psychology
Everyone does it. I used to do it too, but I stopped because I realized I looked silly a few months down the road. You've heard the predictions: "if this level breaks, it's game over", "if the 200 day breaks, it's
General Comments
Everyone is talking about the recent underperformance of small caps (and I've talked about it too!) This underperformance is taken to be a sign of an impending crash, or at least a sign that the market cannot rally. This might be a mistake, as a look at some
General Comments
The most important factor setting up pullback trades, and a simple framework for market and trend analysis that really works.
General Comments
We are awash in opinion and speculation. Every trader is writing blog posts or tweets about why the market will go up or down, and citing any number of factors. To my way of thinking, simple is better. There is only one thing that matters, and that is whether the
Trader Development
I spend a lot of time writing about volatility and even more time thinking about volatility, correlations, and the implications for risk. I want to share a quick look at one of the screens I monitor intraday. Charts are very helpful, for many reasons, but where they falter is in