Markets Unlocked
As we head into the second quarter of the year, markets are showing some resilience. Before we look at major indexes, however, I want to share a few recent blog posts. (For those of you who receive this in an email, you can also read it directly on my blog.
Markets Unlocked
All eyes will be on the FOMC mid-week, and we expect that markets will react, perhaps with extreme volatility, to any comments. This environment should underscore the futility of trading on the news--traders who do so will continually find themselves a step behind. Recent weeks have seen markets diverge sharply,
Markets Unlocked
One of the things that has surprised me over the years (in a good way!) is that macro shocks align with technical, more often than not, when technical patterns are strong. For instance: it's extremely unusual to see a very bullish pattern in a market torpedoed by bad
Markets Unlocked
The last few weeks have seen stocks under moderate pressure. Though bullish patterns have degraded on daily charts, our read of market conditions has been that this has not been the type of weakness that leads to further, significant selling. So, for intermediate-term swing traders, we've argued the
General Comments
Stocks were once again weak last week. While it's easy to extrapolate whatever the market is doing into infinity, it's important to put the move in context. This, in fact, is one of the common mistakes--to assume that strength will continue, or that weakness will lead
Markets Unlocked
Last week saw several rounds of strong selling pressure in stock indexes, including a classic downtrend day on Thursday. (See chart below, just for the illustration of a textbook-perfect downtrend!) However, this weakness may take on a different significance when put in longer-term context. A look at the chart at
General Comments
Last week saw some fireworks in stock indexes. Moved mostly by a handful of tech earnings and announcements with a solid dose of FOMC magic, US indexes chiseled out some solid gains for the week. We think there's a very good chance that any moderate decline or pause
Markets Unlocked
As we head into the end of January, technical conditions in major stock indexes are showing a lot of strength. We see solid justification for short-term (< 2 week) swing longs, with the potential to extend those trades into further swings if supported by market action. In the chart at
Markets Unlocked
The week ahead will feature some potentially market-moving datapoints. Watch, especially, GDP on Thursday and PCE on Friday. Current technical position The past week saw some of the strongest selling pressure in over a month, but buyers stepped in at the end of the week to arrest the decline, painting
Markets Unlocked
The week ahead is a shortened holiday week (Monday close), but we've already gotten a little insight into market tone for the new year. Perhaps the most striking element is the handoff of strength from mega caps to smaller caps. Late in 2022, the DJIA led at every
Markets Unlocked
Happy New Year to all of my readers! We took a couple weeks off from these regular blog posts at the end of the year, but let's dig in and see what January has in store for us. Global stock markets Looking around the globe, we find few
Markets Unlocked
Here we go... heading into the end of the year. In terms of pure price patterns, there's a reasonable chance that an intermediate-term cycle top is in place in major indexes. While this is not a factor we use to support decisions, it's an interesting reinforcement