General Comments
My previous post looked at the concept of comparing relative strength of two assets by comparing returns from a specific point in time. In that post, I suggested using a previous, structurally important, pivot as the comparison point, but there are some potential issues with that idea. Today, I will
Market Math
Yesterday, I discussed some reasons why traders might want to consider looking at, or trading, the relative performance between markets. Today, let's look at a simple way to display that relative performance, and consider some things that can go wrong. Tracking relative performance simply means we want to
Individual Traders
The marketplace is constantly evolving. One of the biggest changes over the past decade is the proliferation of Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) that allow stock traders to trade commodities (and other financial instruments) in a stock account. Much of the traded universe of financial products is now available just by
Market Math
Let's cut straight to the punchline: the answer is, "it turns out, quite a lot." Continuing on this week's series that attempts to break down important technical trading ideas into easily digestible pieces for everyone, let's take a look at probability and
Market Math
Reader Tom asks: I have been reading your blog for a few weeks and I don't see any mention of sentiment. I also see you trade futures but you do not talk about Commitment of Traders like on the Euro recently. Is this stuff you use but don&
Market Math
Continuing from my previous post on moving averages, let's take a look at using a moving average as a trend indicator. Again, here is some material from the unpublished part of my book, on using the slope of a moving average as a trend indicator, and a look
Market Math
Ok, so I'll warn you up front: this one's going to be a little bit difficult. The response to my post on the 200 day moving average in the DJIA and the S&P 500 was very positive, and I received many thought-provoking questions and
General Comments
This is one of those technical questions that does not have a quick, simple answer. The best answer is "no, not really, and almost certainly not in the way most people think", but there are some nuances to consider. I have done extensive quantitative work on moving averages,
Individual Traders
The open, in many ways, is the most important price of the day; action off the open can often define the character of the entire session and even have implications for following days. Even if you are a longer-term trader, there are elements of short term price behavior you should
General Comments
Financial markets are highly uncertain, and every decision we make is ruled by the iron fist of probability. For traders and investors, statistics, whether expressed explicitly or learned implicitly from long contact with the market, are one of our most important tools for understanding the market. In my last post,
Market Math
It is easy to calculate statistics, and it seems like, more and more, we are bombarded with market statistics from every side. The problem is that many of those statistics are false or misleading and making market decisions based on those statistics can be hazardous to your financial health. Truly,
Market Math
There is a lot of talk about the "historic bull market" we are in. Fundamental analysts raise valuation concerns, while technicians point to a myriad of factors, usually making the claim that we are in an unprecedented bull market and due for a reversal. This is simply not