Markets Unlocked
The week ahead is a shortened holiday week (Monday close), but we've already gotten a little insight into market tone for the new year. Perhaps the most striking element is the handoff of strength from mega caps to smaller caps. Late in 2022, the DJIA led at every
Markets Unlocked
Happy New Year to all of my readers! We took a couple weeks off from these regular blog posts at the end of the year, but let's dig in and see what January has in store for us. Global stock markets Looking around the globe, we find few
Markets Unlocked
Here we go... heading into the end of the year. In terms of pure price patterns, there's a reasonable chance that an intermediate-term cycle top is in place in major indexes. While this is not a factor we use to support decisions, it's an interesting reinforcement
Markets Unlocked
Happy December, everyone. As we head into the end of the year, let’s take a quick look at where the market is likely headed in the near term, in the longer-term, and give a few moments to thinking about the “Santa Claus” rally. Near term structure Make no mistake
Markets Unlocked
Markets were solidly locked in tight ranges this week, with many cryptocurrencies winding down in tight coils. We reminded our MarketLife members that, while such patterns always lead to great breakouts in trading books, in real life sometimes no breakout happens and the market just flatlines for a line time.
Markets Unlocked
The market had a stunning reaction to the CPI number this week, with one of the largest gap openings on record (to regular session hours), and a historic uptrending day on Thursday. Of course, this raises many questions. Many traders are seeking reassurance of their strong buy the dip mentality
Markets Unlocked
So, folks, there’s news: our yield curve model inverted (for the first time since 2007) on 10/27/22. While nearly everyone seems to be aware that the yield curve is inverted, it seems that few people understand the significance of this event. What does an inverted yield curve
Markets Unlocked
Happy Halloween, everyone! As we head into the end of the first month of the last quarter of the year, the major news behind us is a GDP report. Politicians and talking heads widely reported that GDP growth shows the economy is fine—nothing to worry about, really—and that
Markets Unlocked
A few thoughts here, as we head into the end of October. Don’t be misled by daily moves There’s a lot of noise in markets. Commentators (of all sorts) report every market move with breathless significance, but the reality is that most day-to-day moves just don’t matter.
Breakout
I want to share a few of the things I have been thinking about and focusing on in the market. This market environment is not that different than "business as usual", so we have lessons here that will apply to most markets, most of the time. Cycles I
Markets Unlocked
Thursday was one for the record books—stocks (and other risk assets) initially cratered under the CPI number, but quickly picked up momentum to the upside and finished the day in a stunning recovery. This kind of explosive action off a significant low (see chart) can often hammer in at
Psychology
A few thoughts on shorting stock markets, which may prove to be especially relevant here, as we head into the end of 2022. Long-term stock bias One of the most important things any stock trader must keep in mind is that stock markets have a strong upward bias over any