Pullback
I've written a few posts recently about doing the right thing and the pain of missing moves. Sometimes very simple concepts can get us far, and I want to propose a simple solution to the problem of missing moves, and show you a way to fix this problem.
General Comments
I appreciate the opportunity to share with you, my readers, here on this blog. Over the years I've learned a lot from you, have had you challenge my thinking in good and exciting ways, and I've been honored to have a number of you become clients
Chart of the Day
I wanted to share a video that I do weekly for my research subscribers. (More information and a free trial is available here.) This is something a bit different from what I usually do here on this blog; I tend to keep the blog a bit more "classroom"
Breakout
In my last post, I showed a quick test of a simple system applied to the futures markets. The point of that post was to show how a simple quantitative methodology can show us something about the market, and to apply the quantitative methodology to a trading idea which we
Breakout
In this post, we'll take a look at a common trend-following trading idea: channel breakouts (also called Donchian channels). I want to share with you a way of looking at market tendencies, and structuring tests of those tendencies, that I have found to be very useful and powerful.
Trend Termination
One of the themes I've written on recently is that we need to be careful how we think about trend change and end of trend patterns. I think too much of noise, particularly in social media, is focused on trying to take a position against a trend so
Chart of the Day
I thought it might be useful to star the week with a look at trends and possible inflections in a number of major markets. Here's a quick look at stocks, biotechs, Treasury futures, and crude oil. Bottom line: * Stocks failed to develop downward momentum. Further consolidation around current
Trend Termination
Let's talk about endings today. If we can better understand the patterns that often occur when trends end, we are better equipped to manage risk, place stops, and, in general, to trade those trends. Crude oil provides a good example of a dangerous ending in a specific kind
Psychology
Before I call it a day, I thought I'd share a few thoughts with you. For those of you finding this post later, US stocks broke down Thursday of last week from a long, extended range, and closed the week Friday with what might be charitably called a
Pullback
Effective trading patterns are usually simple. The more complicated an idea is, the more likely it is the result of trying to fit very random data (i.e., the market) into a preconceived mold. I think many of the patterns and ratios of traditional technical analysis are the result of
Pullback
I initiated a short in crude oil back in July, and an astute reader sent me a good question. For many weeks/months I had been operating with the assumption that crude oil was probably putting in a long-term bottom based on the action back in March/April of 2015;
Podcast
Short term trading, intraday trading, daytrading--call it what you will, these styles of trading bring some unique challenges. Tools and approaches that work in other timeframes also work intraday, but applying them requires a different mindset and attitude toward risk. For the next few weeks, my blog will be focusing