Breakout
I'm convinced that one of the biggest lies of traditional technical analysis (TA) is that "you can apply any tool to any market or any timeframe with the same results." These claims are usually "backed up" with a few examples of an indicator slapped
Market Math
I've received a few questions about how to calculate a measure I have referred to many times here on my blog and in my published research that I call SigmaSpikes. I've disclosed the calculation in several places, but the question keeps popping up, so maybe I
Pullback
Given the action in US stocks this week, I thought this might be a good time to share a few thoughts about the market. I hope to be able to show you a way to think about the market that will cut through all of the fear, hype, exaggeration, and
Pullback
Effective trading patterns are usually simple. The more complicated an idea is, the more likely it is the result of trying to fit very random data (i.e., the market) into a preconceived mold. I think many of the patterns and ratios of traditional technical analysis are the result of
Trader Development
I received a question from Alex, which appears to be a simple question. Digging deeper, it actually drives straight to the essence of intraday trading: If I am wanting to trade intraday on the ES, are there some high probability ways to determine whether the day is likely to be
Intraday Trading
For intraday traders, trend days can offer outsized rewards. For some styles of traders, much of the work of trading is focused on capturing trend days, and most of the profits for the month may come from one or two trend days, with most of the other days showing small
Trading tools
An in-depth look at the intraday market stats page on this blog, with some ideas for using these stats to enter and manage trades. This is not just a tool for intraday traders, though active traders will find valuable tools here. Longer-term traders can identify good entry spots, analysts can
Trading tools
Where do we start? It's easy to get overwhelmed with the number of assets and markets in the global marketplace. Are you looking at everything you need to? Do you know which markets demand your attention? Do you know where to dig deeper? Do you know when something
Trading tools
Is a market trending or not? Even this simple question, which is at the heart of most of our thinking about markets, is not easy to answer. Definitions of trend are often subjective, depend on both timeframe (e.g., daily or intraday) and reference period (i.e., how far are
Climax
The US Dollar is in a trend of historic proportions; the strength and rapidity of its advance has shocked many other currencies as they scramble to adapt to the new US Dollar. This creates an environment with considerable risks, but also brings some opportunity for traders who understand how currencies
Trading tools
One of the complaints leveled against technical analysis is that tools are primarily visual and subjective, rather than being true analytical tools. There certainly is some truth to these complaints (and I have often been a critic of traditional technical analysis), but the best technicians work toward consistency and logic
Trading tools
Trendlines are useful. For the uninitiated, it may seem odd to draw lines on charts and to expect them to work, but what we are actually doing here is to create a shortcut (a heuristic, if you prefer.) A properly drawn trendline will reflect both the trend and the volatility