Market Math
This is another post in the small series on tracking, understanding, and trading relative performance. In previous posts, we looked at two ways to track relative performance as a percent change from some previous point in time, considering that previous point either as a structurally significant swing point or an
Pullback
A look at the technical justification and support for a long trade in the Russell 2000 index, or other US indexes.
Pullback
I'm starting a short series of posts here on pattern recognition, focusing on simple patterns that I have found useful in actual trading. Some of my readers may have questions as to whether it is possible to trade profitably based on simple patterns, given that so much modern
Market Math
Ok, so I'll warn you up front: this one's going to be a little bit difficult. The response to my post on the 200 day moving average in the DJIA and the S&P 500 was very positive, and I received many thought-provoking questions and
Chart of the Day
I thought this was a good time to take a look at current market conditions in US stocks. This is certainly a time when risk, emotions, and volatility are elevated, but it is also a market that is still within "normal parameters". Probabilities favor a snapback, but there
General Comments
This is one of those technical questions that does not have a quick, simple answer. The best answer is "no, not really, and almost certainly not in the way most people think", but there are some nuances to consider. I have done extensive quantitative work on moving averages,
Psychology
Everyone does it. I used to do it too, but I stopped because I realized I looked silly a few months down the road. You've heard the predictions: "if this level breaks, it's game over", "if the 200 day breaks, it's
General Comments
Everyone is talking about the recent underperformance of small caps (and I've talked about it too!) This underperformance is taken to be a sign of an impending crash, or at least a sign that the market cannot rally. This might be a mistake, as a look at some
General Comments
The most important factor setting up pullback trades, and a simple framework for market and trend analysis that really works.
General Comments
We are awash in opinion and speculation. Every trader is writing blog posts or tweets about why the market will go up or down, and citing any number of factors. To my way of thinking, simple is better. There is only one thing that matters, and that is whether the
Failure Test
I've focused quite a bit here on quantitative aspects of trading and market analysis, and I've also just scratched the surface of the thorny subject of intuition. Today, I want to look at something slightly different: how we can use some subjective elements in our analysis,
Failure Test
US Stocks stand at an important potential inflection. Structurally, we have seen much support for US stocks to emerge as the global relative strength leader, should stocks break out into another rally leg, and it is important to temper any natural bearishness. Yes, much of 2014 has been confusing, and