General Comments
daytrading
Pullback
Choosing the best pullbacks
Trading is a game of choices. Over time, we hope to make more good choices than bad. Sometimes, the choices are obvious: control your risk, take disciplined trades, be mindful of correlated risks, but other times the factors that separate good from bad decisions are more subtle. Today, let'
Breakout
Finding trend days in index futures
I've written on this topic before, but we just had a good example in the market, so it's a great time to revisit. Many intraday traders find that most of a month's profits come from one or two exceptional trend days in the month;
Trader Development
Catching the wave: ideas for finding trend days
I received a question from Alex, which appears to be a simple question. Digging deeper, it actually drives straight to the essence of intraday trading: If I am wanting to trade intraday on the ES, are there some high probability ways to determine whether the day is likely to be
Chart of the Day
Chart of the day: Short term setup in S&P 500 (6/5/15)
* Yesterday’s moderately strong downtrend came within higher timeframe consolidation. This is still a market primed for a stronger trend move. Do not fade a break above or below key levels on the daily chart. * Fridays can generate some strong trending action ahead of the weekend. Do not get caught
Chart of the Day
Chart of the day: S&P 500 short term setup (6/4/15)
* This is still a market seeking a catalyst, though bullish factors continue to accumulate. Look for a strong rally above the 2121-2124 level; do not fade a breakout that holds above that level. * After several days in a large consolidation area, there is a higher probability of a trend today.
Intraday Trading
It's all in a day's work
I want to share a few observations on trading activity during the trading day. I will focus on the S&P 500 futures here, but may extend this (if there's interest) to look at a few currencies and maybe other commodities. The same general, broad concepts will
Chart of the Day
Chart of the Day: S&P 500 short term setup (
* Little motion and no new tactical information [yesterday]. Market is still consolidating and still in breakout mode: expect sharp continuation once the consolidation is decisively broken. * The edge is still for an upside breakout. Intraday, selloffs are bought with conviction. Though the probabilities tilt toward the upside, respect the potential
Intraday Trading
Short term trading strategies that work
Over the past week or so, I've written a bit about short term trading strategies on my blog, and I've also done two podcasts (here and here.) Starting tomorrow, I'm going to start a few posts that will look into the statistical behavior of
Chart of the Day
Chart of the day: S&P 500 short-term setup (6/1/15)
* Overall context is a broad consolidation, with volatility contraction visible on intraday charts as a triangle. * Within this area (and expect wide, “messy” definitions of the confines of the pattern—not precise levels), expect failures and sharp spikes that are quickly reversed. * Do not fade a breakout from this area,
Chart of the Day
Chart of the Day: S&P 500 short-term setup (5/29/15)
* Bullish bias today, watching 2019 – 2025 as a reference range (not an exact level). Clearing this resistance could lead to a sharp rally. Failing to break that resistance could lead to another down day. Flexibility is required, but the market’s relation to that range will be the key. * Normal
Intraday Trading
A roadmap for the trading day
When I was an active intraday trader, one of the things that was most important to me was having a rough roadmap for the day: what is most likely to happen, based on the current market structure and most likely emerging volatility conditions. This is the same concept that I&