Markets Unlocked
The market had a stunning reaction to the CPI number this week, with one of the largest gap openings on record (to regular session hours), and a historic uptrending day on Thursday. Of course, this raises many questions. Many traders are seeking reassurance of their strong buy the dip mentality
Markets Unlocked
So, folks, there’s news: our yield curve model inverted (for the first time since 2007) on 10/27/22. While nearly everyone seems to be aware that the yield curve is inverted, it seems that few people understand the significance of this event. What does an inverted yield curve
Markets Unlocked
Happy Halloween, everyone! As we head into the end of the first month of the last quarter of the year, the major news behind us is a GDP report. Politicians and talking heads widely reported that GDP growth shows the economy is fine—nothing to worry about, really—and that
Markets Unlocked
A few thoughts here, as we head into the end of October. Don’t be misled by daily moves There’s a lot of noise in markets. Commentators (of all sorts) report every market move with breathless significance, but the reality is that most day-to-day moves just don’t matter.
Breakout
I want to share a few of the things I have been thinking about and focusing on in the market. This market environment is not that different than "business as usual", so we have lessons here that will apply to most markets, most of the time. Cycles I
Markets Unlocked
Thursday was one for the record books—stocks (and other risk assets) initially cratered under the CPI number, but quickly picked up momentum to the upside and finished the day in a stunning recovery. This kind of explosive action off a significant low (see chart) can often hammer in at
Psychology
A few thoughts on shorting stock markets, which may prove to be especially relevant here, as we head into the end of 2022. Long-term stock bias One of the most important things any stock trader must keep in mind is that stock markets have a strong upward bias over any
General Comments
In the interest of brevity, I’m going to write this weekend’s email almost in bullet point format. There’s a lot here, so let’s get going! Global stocks are still under pressure First, stocks had a yo-yo up/down week. We got the anticipated bounce off of
Psychology
There are about ten thousand ways a trade idea can go wrong. You don’t have to trade very long to seemingly encounter most of them in your first handful of trades! The goal, of course, is to manage behavior and to collapse all of those possibilities to a few
Markets Unlocked
Well that was an interesting month and quarter. I’m writing the second in what I expect will be a long series of weekend emails after one of the weakest months we’ve seen in a long time (in stocks), and a quarter that points to struggling macro factors in
General Comments
Much of this year passed in a blur! It’s been a minute since I posted last, so I thought I would just write a short post to let you know what we and I have been doing. In today’s post, I’ll cover a few trading-specific thoughts, and
General Comments
As we cross the line into fall, we are going to start publishing a short end-of-week update. We'll share some of our thoughts on the current market environment--what you need to watch out for, where opportunity might lie, and how to trade it. You'll see some