Chart of the Day
This will be a very quick blog, as I'm just typing a few thoughts here in the first few minutes of what might be a volatile trading day. This morning, I noticed an extreme negative NYSE TICK reading on the open, and ran some quick stats. * The low
General Comments
This is the last in a series of blogs looking at December seasonality in stocks. To quickly recap, the first post used a simple binary (up/down) classification to look at all months of the year in graphical format. (Lesson: yes/no classifications are useful and so are data visualizations.
Chart of the Day
Pullback
A week ago, I pointed out trade setups in NZDUSD and many NZD crosses to my MarketLife and Talon clients. Of course, one issue currency traders need to consider is correlated risk; if you take a bunch of trades driven by one particular currency (even if that currency is the
Market Math
This is a continuation of a series of posts looking at December seasonality in the stock market. The previous post is here, and the goal of this series is to both examine the seasonal tendency and to share the thought process. Today, we’re going to do something a little
Market Math
This is a followup to my previous post that included a visualization of seasonal tendencies for about 90 years of the US stock market. A visualization like that is a good way to see some patterns in the data, and to maybe get some ideas for further exploration. Today, let&
General Comments
This is the first in a short series of blogs in which we will look at the so-called Santa Claus rally in stocks and find some answers to the question "is there a tendency for stocks to rally into the end of the year?" This is not a
Breakout
Take a look at the chart above. Notice three things near the right edge of the chart: * An intermediate term moving average is flat * Price is never moving far from the moving average * Price is chopping back and forth on both sides of the moving average These are three simple
Trading tools
This weekend, a reader, Paul, asked: When is one better than the other or what are the subtle differences?Add stochastics to the discussion We had some discussion around this topic, but I think the answers really point to a deeper way of understanding indicators. In my first book, I
Market Math
As we round the corner into the Thanksgiving holiday, I thought I would share another piece of my old writing. I recently found this paper as I was searching through old documents; it was my first attempt to really crystallize my pattern testing and research into an academic format. Reading
Guest Blog
[Here's a guest post from a great system developer, honest guy, and my friend Kevin Davey. He beat me to the punch with an article on option selling/writing premium. Tom and I periodically revisit this concept to see if we are missing some way to package selling
Market Math
This is a slightly edited version of the note I sent to my Talon Advisors clients this weekend. There is always a lot of discussion about seasonality at the end of the year. This is a troublesome topic—on one hand, there are reasons why seasonality should work: portfolio managers