Podcast
A_Joe sent me a question on market cycles: You wrote a post (here) that talked about market cycles. I request that you share some more information on market regimes and how it works within the framework of the market and business cycle. Ideas like regime characteristics, how it starts,
Chart of the Day
* Yesterday’s moderately strong downtrend came within higher timeframe consolidation. This is still a market primed for a stronger trend move. Do not fade a break above or below key levels on the daily chart. * Fridays can generate some strong trending action ahead of the weekend. Do not get caught
Intraday Trading
In my last post, I looked at intraday activity in stock indexes; I had a few requests to repeat the same work, showing time of day influences--intraday volume (tick volume) and trend strength--for a handful of major currencies. I'll just present the charts here without much commentary, as
Chart of the Day
* This is still a market seeking a catalyst, though bullish factors continue to accumulate. Look for a strong rally above the 2121-2124 level; do not fade a breakout that holds above that level. * After several days in a large consolidation area, there is a higher probability of a trend today.
Intraday Trading
I want to share a few observations on trading activity during the trading day. I will focus on the S&P 500 futures here, but may extend this (if there's interest) to look at a few currencies and maybe other commodities. The same general, broad concepts will
Chart of the Day
* Little motion and no new tactical information [yesterday]. Market is still consolidating and still in breakout mode: expect sharp continuation once the consolidation is decisively broken. * The edge is still for an upside breakout. Intraday, selloffs are bought with conviction. Though the probabilities tilt toward the upside, respect the potential
Intraday Trading
Over the past week or so, I've written a bit about short term trading strategies on my blog, and I've also done two podcasts (here and here.) Starting tomorrow, I'm going to start a few posts that will look into the statistical behavior of
Podcast
This episode continues my look at short term (intraday and daytrading) systems and ideas. Here are the episode notes: What’s really happening intraday * Academic studies of market behavior show departures from random walk on lower timeframe * These are distortions, but don’t assume that this makes for easy trading
Chart of the Day
* Overall context is a broad consolidation, with volatility contraction visible on intraday charts as a triangle. * Within this area (and expect wide, “messy” definitions of the confines of the pattern—not precise levels), expect failures and sharp spikes that are quickly reversed. * Do not fade a breakout from this area,
Chart of the Day
* Bullish bias today, watching 2019 – 2025 as a reference range (not an exact level). Clearing this resistance could lead to a sharp rally. Failing to break that resistance could lead to another down day. Flexibility is required, but the market’s relation to that range will be the key. * Normal
Intraday Trading
When I was an active intraday trader, one of the things that was most important to me was having a rough roadmap for the day: what is most likely to happen, based on the current market structure and most likely emerging volatility conditions. This is the same concept that I&
Chart of the Day
* Momentum begets momentum—selling, usually, leads to further selling. Yesterday sent a loud and clear warning to bears in US stocks: there is a lot of hidden bullish conviction. The rally was, statistically speaking, the least likely outcome following Tuesday’s decline, and the message of that decline demands attention.